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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."